Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

郭云霞  侯一筠  齐鹏 《海洋学报》2020,42(7):64-77

台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值)，并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格，以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集，采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速，构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速，并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果，而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低，这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。  相似文献   

2010-2018年北极夏季中国北极科学考察航行期间被动微波遥感海冰密集度与船基目视观测资料的比较   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

修苑人  李志军  雷瑞波  王庆凯  卢鹏  Lepp&#;ranta Matti 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(9):38-49

为了更有效地将卫星数据应用于北极航行导航，被动微波（PM）产品的海冰密集度（SIC）与从中国北极科学考察中收集到的船基目视观测（OBS）资料进行了比较。在2010、2012、2014、2016和2018年的北极夏季总共收集了3667组目测数据。PM SIC取自基于SSMIS传感器的NASA-Team（NT）、Bootstrap（BT）以及Climate Data Record（CDR）算法和基于AMSR-E/AMSR-2传感器的BT、enhanced NT（NT2）以及ARTIST Sea Ice（ASI）算法。使用PM SIC的日算术平均值和OBS SIC的日加权平均值进行比较。比较了PM SIC和OBS SIC之间的相关系数，偏差和均方根偏差，包括总体趋势以及在轻度/普通/严重冰况下的情况。使用OBS数据，浮冰尺寸和冰厚对不同PM产品SIC反演的影响可以通过计算浮冰尺寸编码和冰厚的日加权平均值来评估。我们的结果显示相关系数的范围为0.89（AMSR-E/AMSR-2 NT2）到0.95（SSMIS NT），偏差的范围为-3.96%（SSMIS NT）到12.05%（AMSR-E/AMSR-2），均方根偏差的范围为10.81%（SSMIS NT）到20.15%（AMSR-E/AMSR-2 NT2）。浮冰尺寸对PM产品的SIC反演有显著的影响，大多数PM产品倾向于在小浮冰尺寸情况下低估SIC，而在大浮冰尺寸情况下高估SIC。超过30 cm的冰厚对于PM产品的SIC反演没有明显影响。总体来看，在北极夏季，SSMIS NT SIC与OBS SIC之间有着最好的一致性，而AMSR-E/AMSR-2 NT2 SIC与OBS SIC的一致性最差。  相似文献   

A new pelagic Polyconchoecia Xiang,Chen and Du, 2018(Ostracoda:Myodocopa:Halocyprididae) from the South China Sea     

项鹏  王雨  陈瑞祥  叶又茵  王春光  陈小银  林茂 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(4):73-83

Halocyprid ostracods are appreciable part of ostracods floating through virtually everywhere in marine environment.In this study,we describe a new species of genus Polyconchoecia Xiang,Chen and Du,2018,tribe Conchoeciini Chavtur and Angel,2011,family Halocyprididae Dana,1853 from the middle of the South China Sea.Polyconchoecia chenii sp.nov.is very close to P.commixtus Xiang,Chen and Du,2018.But it differs from P.commixtus by the distinctions of locations of major glands of carapace and the characteristics of appendages:more posteriorly situated left asymmetric gland of carapace,no right asymmetric gland;segmented frontal organ;the endopod 2 of the first antenna with a very small seta;a-and c-setae of the first antenna with long end joint have long end joint,the b-and d-setae have no end joint,spinose e-seta without end joint;the e-seta of the second antenna is present;teeth side is distinctive;the setal counts of the mandible,maxilla,fifth limb,and sixth limb are individual.The locations of the major glands on carapace and the characteristics of the first antenna can be the key of the new species.This work is the second discovery of the genus Polyconchoecia from the world.  相似文献   

The potential of contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter in intertidal sediments as a proxy of mangrove development in the northern Beibu Gulf     

Jun Zhang  Xianwei Meng  Peng Xia  Xiangqin Wang  Shan Gao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(12):21-29

Located between terrestrial and marine ecosystems, mangrove forests are sensitive to changes in climate. The responses of mangrove ecosystems to climate change in the future can be understood by reconstructing past mangrove dynamics using proxies preserved in the intertidal sediments. Considering the complexity of the proxies commonly used, it is necessary to develop a relatively simple, inexpensive proxy. In this study, available chemical tracers (δ13C_org and C:N) of the four cores (YLW02, YLW03, O18, and Q37) from the intertidal zone of the northern Beibu Gulf (NBG) and a three-end-member (mangrove, sea grass, and suspended particulate matter) model was utilized to determine the contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter (CMOM) in carbonate-free sediments. Compared with the summed concentration of mangrove pollen (SCMP), a significant positive correlation between CMOM and SCMP is displayed. The calculated CMOM for an additional 210Pb-dated sediment core from the Yingluo Bay, NBG (YLW01) clearly indicates a mangrove development going through degradation, flourishing, relative degradation, and relative flourishing, which are separately in correspondence with the lowest, highest, lower, and higher air temperature and rainfall in the time intervals of 1890–1918 AD, 1919–1956 AD, 1957–1990 AD, and 1991–2010 AD. This suggests that CMOM preserved in intertidal sediments has a potential to reconstruct historical mangrove development in high resolution, at the very least, along the coasts of the NBG.  相似文献   

Experimental Study and Fatigue Analysis of Vortex-Induced Vibration of Umbilical Cable Considering Internal Friction     

Gu  Hong-lu  Guo  Hai-yan  Liu  Zhen  Li  Fu-heng  An  Wan-bo  Li  Peng 《中国海洋工程》2020,34(2):151-161

In order to investigate the effect of internal friction of umbilical cable on its vortex-induced vibration(VIV)responses, the experimental study on VIV of bond umbilical cable(BUC) and un-bond umbilical cable(UBUC) was carried out in an experimental tank. A current generator in the laboratory simulated the uniform current, and the current velocities were observed in real time by using a Doppler Velocimeter. In addition, different sizes of top tension were applied to the umbilical cable model. The VIV responses of the umbilical cable model were measured by using Fiber Bragg grating(FBG) strain sensors. The displacement responses of umbilical cable model were reconstructed based on the experimental strain data processed by modal superposition method. In this paper, the traveling wave characteristics, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of frequency and fatigue damage of the BUC and UBUC under VIV are studied. The experimental results show that there are obvious differences between BUC and UBUC in the response characteristics of VIV. The UBUC appears the traveling wave sooner than BUC, but its standing wave characteristics are more obvious than those of BUC at high velocities. Compared with BUC, the spatial-temporal distribution of UBUC frequencies appears wide-band distribution sooner, but has narrower bandwidth in the "lock-in" state. The level of fatigue damage of BUC was approximately the same as that of UBUC.  相似文献   

Experimental and Numerical Study on the Bubble Dynamics near Two-Connected Walls with An Obtuse Angle     

Li  Shi-min  Cui  Pu  Zhang  Shuai  Liu  Wen-tao  Peng  Yu-xiang 《中国海洋工程》2020,34(6):828-839

China Ocean Engineering - This study is concerned with the dynamic characteristics of bubbles near two connected walls (one horizontal and the other inclined with an obtuse angle from the...  相似文献   

海上风电场高桩承台群桩基础平台的设计研究     

王淼  武东宽  李近元  祝亮  陈晓军  刘建民  赵乐川 《海洋科学》2020,44(10):114-120

针对国内海上风电基础设计没有统一的规范及标准，为提升海上风电基础设计建设的水平，通过对东南沿海某海域海上风电基础的设计进行了有限元计算分析论证，验证了群桩高承台结构设计方案的设计方法和设计参数。分析结果表明该设计的最大应力主要发生在塔筒底座与承台接触部位及钢管桩与承台连接段，应在连接部位加强措施处理；基础竖直位移较小，水平位移相对较大；分界部位应力较集中，刚度不能顺畅过渡，可考虑填充碎石土等方法加强。本研究对海上风电基础设计技术的研究与探索，可为将来制定中国海上风电行业标准提供可靠的依据，对中国未来大批量的海上风电能源的开发有着重要意义。  相似文献   

发达国家海上搜救体系对比研究及对我国的启示          下载免费PDF全文

韩鹏  李宇航  揭晓蒙 《海洋技术学报》2020,39(1):107-113

提升海上应急搜救能力对保障人民生命安全、维护国家海洋权益、彰显大国责任和担当具有积极作用和深远意义。发达国家海上搜救体系的先进性主要体现在搜救力量专业化、应急响应快捷化、组织协调高效化、搜救业务程序化等方面。文中对美国、英国、澳大利亚、日本4个国家的海上搜救组织构成、搜救力量水平、搜救工作模式等进行了分析,与我国海上搜救体系和机制进行了对比,并从优化搜救组织模式、完善搜救运行机制、健全搜救力量等方面给出了发展我国海上搜救体系的建议。  相似文献   

海洋信息技术新进展     

姜晓轶  康林冲  符昱  孙苗 《海洋信息》2020,35(1):1-5

海洋信息技术是认识和开发利用海洋最直接、最便捷的手段.本文主要概述自2015年以来,围绕海洋观测监测、海洋物联网、海上通信组网、海洋信息基础设施、海洋数据处理以及信息应用服务等方面的新发展和新技术,并对后续发展提出简要建议.  相似文献   

“数字海底”--海底数据集成管理与可视化研究     

肖鹏  王悦东  李安龙 《海洋信息》2020,35(1):40-45,51

针对目前"数字海底"建设中存在海底调查数据集成管理与三维可视化表达不足等问题,本文采用GIS技术,以黄河水下三角洲埕北海域为研究对象,利用地理空间数据集成理论与三维建模方法,建立了埕北海域三维海底空间数据库,实现了研究区域地形数据、地层数据、钻孔数据、表层沉积物数据的有效组织管理与可视化,并在此基础上,采用ArcGIS Engine 10.0,结合.NET平台,在Visual Studio 2010开发环境下,利用C#语言进行了二次开发,实现了基于C/S (Client/Server)架构的三维海底虚拟仿真系统的开发,设计了一套面向埕北海域的三维海底虚拟仿真原型系统。  相似文献